August | 2021 | Holdfast Training Services Trial Blog

The Elephant in the Room – Population Control

12/08/2021 Jordan Gask Leave a comment

In preparation for my professional review I’ve been doing some research into the Bruntland Report ‘Our Common Future’ and was looking to see how much it influenced the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

For the most part it seems that many of the points raised by Bruntland do feature in one way or another in the SDGs… with the exception of population growth – the elephant in the room.

Below are some excerpts of the report regarding population growth:

The planet is passing through a period of dramatic growth and fundamental change. Our human world of 5 billion must make room in a finite environment for another human world. The population could stabilize at between 8 and 14 billion sometime next century, according to UN projections. More than 90 per cent of the increase will occur in the poorest countries, and 90 per cent of that growth in already bursting cities.
In many parts of the world, the population is growing at rates that cannot be sustained by available environmental resources, at rates that are outstripping any reasonable expectations of improvements in housing, health care, food security, or energy supplies.
Urgent steps are needed to limit extreme rates of population growth. Choices made now will influence the level at which the population stabilizes next century within a range of 6 billion people.
Given population growth rates, a five- to tenfold increase in manufacturing output will be needed just to raise developing world consumption of manufactured goods to industrialized world levels by the time population growth rates level off next century.
The rapid rise in population has compromised the ability to raise living standards.
Our Common Future, Bruntland

Given how heavily the idea that population growth should me managed/limited featured in the Bruntland report, I found it interesting that population control wasn’t explicitly mentioned in the UN SDGs.

There are both political and ethical issues when addressing population control, not least because population booms are typically occurring in less developed countries.

But the point remains that population growth is one of largest threats to the climate in the short term, yet it’s too delicate of an issue to address. What’s the solution?

Elements of the issue are explored in more detail in a blog post here.

our-common-future Our Common Future

Categories: Uncategorized

Digital Twins

08/08/2021 Beth Easingwood 2 comments

I first heard the term “Digital Twin” at a John Holland (JH) Engineers’ Forum. It was pitched as a new and exciting concept which would innovate the way JH would manage construction projects in future. After some research into the topic, I found that the Centre for Digital Built Britain is implementing a National Digital Twin programme which may be of interest to those heading for professional review soon.

What is a Digital Twin?

Digital twins are virtual models of a physical asset but, unlike BIM, they are digitally connected to their physical counterpart. Digital twins have been used for years in manufacturing and aviation but are beginning to emerge in the built environment. “Twins” are a concept, rather than a single piece of software. The Twin is created by continuously learning from multiple sources including analytics, machine-learning algorithms and artificial intelligence. Real-world data is captured via sensors, drones and other wireless technology operating within the physical asset which feeds back to the Twin.

Types of Digital Twins

Similar to the levels of BIM, there are levels of Digital Twin maturity which can be implemented as follows:

Level 1: Descriptive Twin. The descriptive twin is a visual replica with live, editable design and construction data, including 3D models and BIM.

Level 2: Informative Twin. The informative twin uses increased integration with sensors and operations data for insights at any given time.

Level 3: Predictive Twin. The predictive twin captures real-time data, contextual data, and analytics to identify potential issues.

Level 4: Comprehensive Twin. The comprehensive twin leverages advanced modelling and simulation for potential future scenarios as well as prescriptive analytics and recommendations.

Level 5: Autonomous Twin. The autonomous twin has the ability to learn and make decisions through artificial intelligence, while using advanced algorithms for simulation and 3D visualization.

Video 1: What is a Digital Twin? (from Redshift by Autodesk)

What is the National Digital Twin (NDT) programme?

The NDT programme is run by the Centre for Digital Built Britain (CDBB), a partnership between the University of Cambridge and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. The programme aims to:

1. Enable a National Digital Twin: an ecosystem of connected digital twins to foster better outcomes from our built environment.

2. Deliver an Information Management Framework: to ensure secure resilient data sharing and effective information management.

3. Align a Digital Framework Task Group: to provide coordination and alignment among key players.

Video 2: What is the National Digital Twin (NDT)? (from CDBB)

The NDT Gemini Principles

The CDBB has developed the “Gemini Principles” as the conscience of the NDT. The Gemini Principles consist of 9 guiding values to ensure the Digital Twins have purpose, maintain trust and function effectively. Find out more about the 9 values here: https://youtu.be/GoIv5ritEiM

Why use a Digital Twin?

Improves efficiency and quality. Digital Twins allow the user to gain valuable insights about the performance, operation or profitability of a project, whether completed or in progress which can improve efficiency and quality.

Aids decision making. A Digital Twin can provide real-time information about what is happening now which improves the speed of issue detection and resolution ultimatelyaiding decision making.

Reduces risk. Conducting virtual inspections, using wireless technology, allows for identification of maintenance requirements or fault detection without requiring a human to physically inspect the asset. This is particularly useful for railways and large bridges and a technology driven inspection can return information not visible to the human eye. Virtual inspections reduce the requirement and risk for workers on a job site and can be much quicker; allowing for more frequent inspections which again reduces risk.

Increases profitability. If the Digital Twin is fully engaged with for all of its benefits, a project can experience improved efficiency, quality and reduced risk which all provide the opportunity for increased project profitability.

Enhances coordination. Digital twins enhance coordination as the real-time data capture can be combined with the proposal of a future installation or change concept and easily demonstrated visually to stakeholders, such as within a 3D model simulation. This provides an accurate prediction of how the asset will react to change and provides reassurance of the predicted outcome, enhancing coordination between the current physical asset and implementation of alterations.

Provides reassurance of asset integrity. Digital twins provide a consistent and easy way to conduct real-time monitoring of a built asset which provides early warning of asset fatigue and potential failure.

Challenges of creating a digital twin

Additional technology. The technological requirements to establish a digital twin are additional to those implemented for BIM. Companies will have to invest in Digital Twin technologies, train staff and maintain currency to effectively implement the concept.

Return on investment not guaranteed. Unless an effective Digital Twin is implemented and then used to enhance the project, the return on investment will not be achieved. The upfront cost of technologies may require multiple project Digital Twins to be implemented before a profit is realised.

Demand. JH are committed to making this investment and realising the benefits of Digital Twins as soon as possible, but other companies may not have this mindset. Unless a Client requires a Digital Twin for use in the operational life-cycle and beyond, some construction companies may not see the need or cost benefit of implement this concept.

Coordination between creator and user. The creator of the Digital Twin during the design and construction phase may not be the same individual who uses the Twin for analysis of the asset in future. This disconnect could lead to a lack of investment in or understanding of the Twin and a poor replication of the physical world.

Innovative Digital Twin Data Capture in Practice